COMPANIES | PAGE 4 ECONOMY | PAGE 2 AI investors shift focus from models to moats INTERNATIONAL | PAGE 10 ArtificialsupportforRemay weakeneconomy:Montek NEW DELHI, SATURDAY, MAY 23, 2026 Warsh faces rate hike bets as he takes charge ofFed FOLLOW US ON TWITTER & FACEBOOK. APP AVAILABLE ON APP STORE & PLAYSTORE WWW.FINANCIALEXPRESS.COM VOL LII NO. 72, 34 PAGES, `12 (PATNA & RAIPUR `12, SRINAGAR `15) P U B L I S H E D F R O M : A H M E D A B A D , B E N G A L U R U , C H A N D I G A R H , C H E N N A I , H Y D E R A B A D , K O C H I , K O L K ATA , L U C K N O W, M U M B A I , N E W D E L H I , P U N E READ TO LEAD SENSEX: 75,415.35 ▲ 231.99 NIFTY: 23,719.30 ▲ 64.60 NIKKEI 225: 63,339.07 ▲ 1654.93 HANG SENG: 25,606.03 ▲ 219.51 `/$: 95.71 ▲ 0.50 `/€: 111.04 ▲ 0.80 BRENT: $104.32 ▲ $1.74 GOLD: `157,549 ▼ `289 INDIA ON FRIDAY announced that a meeting of Quad foreign ministers will take place in New Delhi on May 26. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is arriving today, will attend the meeting. MARKETS PAGE 7 CENTRE EXPANDS CENTRALBANK STAKE SALETO 8% THE CENTRE’S OFFER for sale in Central Bank of India was oversubscribed 2.35 times on the first day, amid strong institutional investor demand, prompting it to exercise the entire greenshoe option, taking the total equity dilution to 8%, reports fe Bureau. » INSIDE « H-1B REGISTRATIONS DOWN 38.5% IN FY27 PAGE 24 RBI’S `1.5 LAKH-CRVRR AUCTION ON MAY25 PAGE 7 TCS hikes variable payouts for senior employees IT MAJOR TCS has raised quarterly variable payouts for a section of its mid- and senior-level employees in the fourth quarter of FY26, signalling cautious optimism around business momentum after several subdued quarters for the Indian IT sector, reports Urvi Malvania. ■ PAGE 4 PLI dispute: India blocks China move to formWTO panel INDIAHAS BLOCKED China’s request for establishment of a panel to adjudicate the dispute it has brought before theWorldTrade Organization against Production Linked Incentive Scheme for solar modules and duties charged on ITproducts, reports fe Bureau. ■ PAGE 3 RBIclears`2.87L-cr dividendforCentre ● Record payout WINDFALL GAINS in line with Budget Estimate but lower than analysts’forecast RBI surplus transfer to the government (` crore) FY21 FY22 FY23 FE BUREAU New Delhi, May 22 FY24 THE RESERVE BANK of India (RBI) on Friday announced a recordsurplustransferof`2.87 lakh crore to the Centre for the accounting year 2025-26, marking a 6.7% increase over thepreviousyear.Thelatestdividendpayoutwaslargelyinline with the government's Budget Estimates but fell slightlyshort of analyst expectations. The RBI set aside a higher amountforitscontingencyrisk buffer (CRB) for 2025-26,as its balance sheet expanded more than a fifth year-on-year.This couldstrengthenitspositionto intervene in the financial market this year, in response to evolving domestic and global macroeconomic conditions. The transfer from the central bank to the Union Budget will be the highest as a share of the government’s non-tax revenue at 43% and will account for 5.4% of the Budget Estimates for2026-27. Continued on Page 6 FY25 % of Centre’s non-tax revenue 57,127 27.5 99,122 27.1 30,307 10.6 87,416 21.8 10,873 39.3 FY26 sheet expanded 20.61% on year to `91,97,121 cr as of March 31 40.2 FY27 ■ RBI’s balance 268,590 286,588 43 ■ Contingency risk buffer for 2025-26 is 6.5% of the balance sheet ■ The dividend is a key source of non-tax revenue for the Centre in recent years »INSIDE« EDITORIAL: DIVIDEND AND DISCIPLINE PAGE 8 Oilcontinuestoposerisk tooutlook:RBIbulletin HIGH CRUDE OILprices,along with volatile financial conditions and slow capital inflows, continue to pose risks to India’s external sector outlook amid the ongoing West Asia crisis, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest monthly bulletin indicated on Friday. The global economy remainscloudedbyuncertainties stemming from the West Asiaconflict,itnoted.However, it highlighted that the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience despite persistent geopolitical and trade-related headwinds. PAGE 2 Volatile markets see pvt credit’s big fund rush RAGHAVENDRAKAMATH Mumbai, May 22 WITH VOLATILE EQUITY markets and a narrowing IPO window,private credit investors are spotting a biggeropportunityto deploy capital and negotiate toughertermswithborrowers. Aflurry of fund launches in recentweeksreflectsthegrowing appetite. ASK Alternates and Lighthouse Canton have both launched new private credit funds, while Sundaram Alternates on Thursday raised a `2,500-crore real estate credit fund. The roughly $12-billion-ayearIndianprivatecreditmarket has also seen new entrants such as Nuvama, while Kotak AlternateAssetManagersandPAGare planningfreshfundraising. India’s private credit market offersreturnsof14-22%,significantly higher than the compressed spreads available in the RAHUL CHHAPARWAL, PARTNER, KOTAK ALTERNATE ASSET MANAGERS SHANTANU SAHAI, HEAD OF PRIVATE CREDIT, ASK ALTERNATES We expect strong demand for bespoke funding solutions such as preferred equity ...private credit has emerged as an attractive alternative backed by exposure to high-quality businesses USandEurope,makingthemarket increasingly attractive for lenders. “When public debt markets become choppier and equity issuancewindowsnarrow,wesee increased demand for bridge financing from companies and promoters dealing with tempo- rary stress or looking to consolidate promoter stakes without diluting equityat currentvaluations,” said Pranob Gupta,managing directorand head of India alternatives (credit and hybrid strategies)atLighthouseCanton. Continued on Page 10 SAURAVANAND New Delhi, May 22 POWER GUZZLER EVEN AS HEATWAVES push peak power demand to new alltime highs every day, thermal power stations have started reporting inadequate coal stocks,signallingwiderelectricity supply gaps with adverse consequences for the economy in the comingweeks. Coal stocks at India’s thermal power plants dropped to just 68% of the normative requirement,against last year's level of 80%. Of the 189 thermal power plants with a combined generation capacity of 222.7 GW, 21 were operating undercriticalcoalstocklevelsas ofMay20,including11domestic coal-based stations and 10 that use imported coal. Apower plant is categorised ascriticalwhencoalinventories fallbelow25%ofthenormative requirement. Data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed Demand spikes (GW) ■ According to 18 19 20 coalinventoriesatdomesticand imported coal-based thermal plants stood at 51.23 million tonne (MT) as of May 20,down 10.7%from57.39MTrecorded duringthesameperiodlastyear andsignificantlybelowthenormative requirement of around 75.2 MT. The sharp fall in fuel inventories comes amid an unprecedented demand surge,with the country recording four consec- What is the route for India to ‘build for global’ as mentioned by you earlier during the festival and emerge as a global brand? People give examples of Korea and various other countries who have marketed & ❝ ment, it seems like development was not sustainable in the first place and sustainability is an aftermath. But how we Indians see nature is very different. We worship and bow down to nature.Now if you have that attitude, it will reflect in whatever you do,including scientific development. So India’s success should be what inherently India’s thinking is. Can AI help scale that line of thinking? AI is something I do not take lightly. It is not just a technology but it is going to be a life changing intervention. AI development is not WHEN WE TALK ABOUT TAKING INDIA TO A GLOBAL STAGE, WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT ‘WHAT IS INDIA’. INDIA IS ABOUT THE PEOPLE, AND THE WAY WE THINK, DO THINGS utive days of record daytime peak powerdemand.According to the Power Ministry,demand rose from 257.37 GW on May 18 to 260.45 GW on May 19, 265.44 GW on May 20 and a fresh all-time high of 270.82 GWonMay21,nearlytouching the government’s projected annual peak of 271 GW. On May 21,the Power Ministry said it had “successfully met” the “fourth consecutive day when the peak power demand... reached a new alltime high”, supplying 270.82 gigawatts (GW) but it also warned that the grid was being stretched. “Although we are prepared to supply electricity as required, due to the intense summer, let us all try to use electricity wisely and judiciously,”it said in a statement. Continued on Page 6 USsays‘slightprogress’intalks;Iran sees‘gapsnarrowed’withlatestoffer AGENCIES Tel Aviv, May 22 STICKING POINTS REMAIN US SECRETARY OF State Marco Rubio said Friday there was “slight progress” during talks with Iran amid uncertainty about whether a deal will be reached or war will resume.He spoke days after US President Donald Trump said he was holding off on a military strike against the Islamic Republic because “serious negotiations” were underway. Iran, meanwhile, has said the latest proposal from the US has partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, as they seek to turn a fragile ceasefire into a peace deal. Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submit- ■ Rubio is in Helsingborg, Sweden for a meeting of Nato foreign ministers ■ President Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off MARCO RUBIO, SECRETARY OF STATE, US There's been some progress. I wouldn't exaggerate it. I wouldn't diminish it ■ Field MarshalAsim Munir has joined Pakistan interior minister inTehran, who has already met with Iranian leaders twice this week ted by the US,which“has narrowed the gaps to some extent,”the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Thursday, without saying where it got the AUTO WATCH Marutiextends Honda poised CNGleadamid to roll out six Hyundaigains new models INDIA’S FLEET MARKET is increasingly consolidating around CNG-powered vehicles, with Maruti Suzuki strengthening its dominance even as Hyundai emerges as the only credible challenger, reports Akbar Merchant. PAGE 6 HONDA CARS INDIA will launch six new models in the country by FY27 as the Japanese automaker targets double-digit growth, backed by an expanded portfolio of SUVs & sedans across hybrid and electric powertrains, reports Nitin Kumar. PAGE 4 ‘The spark of magic will still come from humans’ themselves very well. The most important thing is that whatever you are projecting or wanting, it should have authenticity. When we talk about taking India to a global stage,we need to think about ‘what is India’. India is about the people, and the way we think, do things, internalise and solve problems and the kind of human future we see which could differentiate how the world sees success. Let me tell you that India is not obsessed with the word ‘human’. India is about 'creation'. For example, if we talk about sustainable develop- estimates, thermal power plants may consume up to 850 MT of coal in FY27, up from around 808 MT in FY26 21 May ● PRASOON JOSHI, CHAIRMAN, PRASAR BHARATI The advertising, media and communications fraternity came together at Goafest 2026 to felicitate Prasoon Joshi on Friday for his appointment as chairman of India’s public service broadcaster Prasar Bharati.Joshi,who earlier this year, took the role of chairman, Omnicom Advertising Group India, as part of the global advertising network's restructuring and consolidation, tells KartikayKashyap that though AI development is not impacting just creativity, it is impacting everything,creating magic with originality still lies with humans. Excerpts: ■ Thermal power plants are currently burning nearly 3.096 MT of coal every day to sustain electricity generation 270.82 RUBIO ARRIVES TODAY FOR QUAD MEETING Coalstocksatpowerplantsdown 11%,inventorycriticalat21units 265.44 PAGE 24 260.45 BACK PAGE AMOUNT43%OFGOVT’SPROJECTEDTAXREVENUE 257.37 IN THE NEWS impacting just creativity, it is As you are taking returns as impacting everything.I think a "very important" measure, more than the process of cre- it is fine. But if you are ation, the creator will suffer. obsessed with it then you The creators will have to will deny the magic of creunderstand that they will ativity which is not a great have a degree of separation. thing. I just did a Dettol ad in As an artiste now, I have to which a child is looking for make choices his mother – rather than giving an emojust chiseling tional touch the statue and and people 2026 identify myself loved it. This is with those a very classic choices. So for way of adver»INSIDE« creative satistising and it CREATIVITY’S DAY OUT faction we will means that IN THE SUN P24 need a very difemotions are ferent mindstill supreme. set. Second, whatever AI does is all data-based. So whatever Are we undermining meaAI generates, it has already surement? been done. So what about We should not deny measurthings that are yet to come. ing tools, but do not be Creating magic with original- obsessed with them. There ity still lies with humans. should be a good conjunction between the two where What does creativity mean the amalgamation of magic for brands in the race to and the logic comes achieve ROI? together. information. “Further narrowing requires an end to the temptation for war on Washington’s part.” Trump has been threatening for weeks that the cease- fire reached in mid-April could end if Iran does not make a deal, with shifting parameters for striking such an agreement.Rubio spoke ahead of a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Helsingborg,Sweden,where the military alliance is expected to discuss what role it could play in helping police the Strait of Hormuz once the war is over. Rubio said he did not want to exaggerate the progress, saying there had been “a little bit of movement and that's good.” He said the conversations were ongoing. In recent weeks there have been repeated claims of progress, but a deal has stayed out of reach. Continued on Page 10 AI-ledchipcrunch mayfurtherraise mobile,PCprices OJASVI GUPTA New Delhi, May 22 SMARTPHONES AND PCs could become 5–10% more expensive over the next 12–18 monthsasartificialintelligence (AI)-driven demand for advanced memory chips continues to tighten supply. According to the India ElectronicsandSemiconductorAssociation's (IESA) estimates,some consumerelectronicscategories could see price increases of 10–15%,depending on memory requirements,as manufacturers increasingly prioritise high-margin memory products usedinAIinfrastructure. “Data-centre demand for Highbandwidthmemory(HBM) andadvanceddynamicrandomaccess memory (DRAM) is absorbing capacity that earlier served consumer electronics, pushing memory prices up 30–50%and,insomecases,even higher,”Ashok Chandak,PresidentofIESA,said. HBM,a keycomponent used in AI accelerators and graphics processing units (GPU), has emerged as one of the fastestgrowing segments in the semiconductor market. Compared with conventional DRAM and NAND flash memory (type of non-volatile storage technology) used in smartphones and PCs, HBM requires greatermanufacturingresourcesandoffershigher returnstomemorymakers. As AI infrastructure investmentsaccelerateglobally,mem- New Delhi SUPPLY SHIFT ■ According to estimates, some consumer electronics items could see price increases of 10–15% ■ The chip manufacturers are increasingly prioritising high-margin memory products used in AI infrastructure ■ Supply pressure is expected to be more visible in massmarket products where pricing flexibility is lower ory manufacturers are increasingly reallocating fabrication capacity towards AI-focused products,reducing supplyavailable for traditional electronics markets. Industry estimates suggest pricesacrossseveralmemorycategorieshaverisenbetween50% and 100% over the past year. However,the increase in device prices is expected to be lower because memory accounts for onlyaportionofthetotalcostof asmartphoneorPC,withprocessors,displays and other components continuing to make up a largershareofdevicecosts. Continued on Page 6