Airbus, Boeing see sharp growth in Indian demand

Despite a slowdown in the economy and the aviation sector, Airbus and Boeing have projected a sharp growth in the demand for aircraft in India. Close on the heels of Boeing predicting that India will need 1,001 aircraft in the next 20 years, Airbus has forecast that the sector will require 1,100 aircraft in the next 25 years.

Says Justin Dubon, regional press manager for Airbus, "India is a promising market for us.

Our forecast takes into account the industry's near-term challenges, including surging fuel prices and slowing air traffic growth. Yet, we foresee a strong demand for aircraft because India is the third largest in terms of purchasing power parity.It is also projected to be the seventh largest economy by 2017." It has predicted that the Indian market will need 1,100 passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $105 billion over the next 25 years. Since 2005, Airbus has bagged over 295 orders from Indian carriers valued roughly at $22billion.

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The American economy The long hangover

It may not be official but it is increasingly obvious: America's economy has slipped into recession. The latest labour-market figures-a jump in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and the loss of 98,000 private-sector jobs in March, the fourth consecutive month of decline-point to a shrinking economy.So do surveys of manufacturing and services. So does Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve. On April 2nd he told a congressional committee that output was unlikely to "grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly."

The official judges of American downturns-a group of academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)-define a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales." (Contrary to popular belief, recession does not require two consecutive quarters of falling output.) Though the NBER's wonks will not pronounce for many months, their criteria look increasingly likely to be met.

The question now is: what kind of recession will this be? Shallow or deep; short or long? So far, it seems remarkably gentle, given that many think America is suffering its worst financial shock since the Great Depression. Since December the economy has shed an average of almost 80,000 jobs a month. In most recessions a rate of 150,000200,000 is normal.

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