BACK PAGE | PAGE 18 COMPANIES | PAGE 4 Professionals uneasy asAI takes over hiring INTERNATIONAL | PAGE 10 UpGrad abandons talks to acquire Unacademy CHENNAI/KOCHI, FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2026 US trade deficit shrinks to narrowest since 2009 FOLLOW US ON TWITTER & FACEBOOK. APP AVAILABLE ON APP STORE & PLAYSTORE WWW.FINANCIALEXPRESS.COM READ TO LEAD VOL NO. XLVI 209, 18 PAGES, `12 P U B L I S H E D F R O M : A H M E D A B A D , B E N G A L U R U , C H A N D I G A R H , C H E N N A I , H Y D E R A B A D , K O C H I , K O L K ATA , L U C K N O W, M U M B A I , N E W D E L H I , P U N E SENSEX: 84,180.96 ▼ 780.18 NIFTY: 25,876.85 ▼ 263.90 NIKKEI 225: 51.117.26 ▼ 844.72 HANG SENG: 26,149.31 ▼ 309.64 `/$: 90.03 ▲ 0.14 `/€: 105.12 ▲ 0.10 BRENT: $61.07 ▲ $1.11 GOLD: `1,35,293 ▼ `810 ■ India risks ■ The Bill massive foreign exchange losses, job destruction in labour-intensive sectors targets India, China, and Brazil explicitly ■ The legislation could be voted on in Congress next week RIL open to buying Venezuelan oil Bill.“TheBillwillallowPresident Trump to punish those countries who buycheap Russian oil fuelling Putin’s war machine,” Graham posted on X.“It would give the President tremendous leverage against countries like China,IndiaandBraziltoincentivisethemtostopbuyingcheap Russianoilthatprovidesfinancing for Putin’s bloodbath against Ukraine,” he said. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL) ON Thursday said it will consider buying Venezuelan oil if permitted for sale to non-US buyers, reports Reuters. "We await clarity...and will consider buying the oil in a compliant manner," a spokesperson said. Continued on Page 10 Sensex slumps 1,600 pts in 4 days on trade jitters SENSEX NIFTY 26,328.55 -1.84% 85,762.01 Jan 2 Jan 2 85,439.62 Jan 5 -1.72% 26,250.30 Jan 5 26,178.70 Jan 6 85,063.34 Jan 6 26,140.75 84,961.14 Jan 7 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 8 RETURNS IN % M-CAP GAIN/LOSS IN ` CRORE 33,987 Jan 8 Jan 5 Jan 6 -0.14 -0.12 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 7 -44,587 -0.92 JEWELLERY STOCKS LOSE SHEEN P7 -1,20,000 -1.01 -0.38 »INSIDE« -0.27 Sensex Nifty Jan 5 Jan 6 RBI’S RUPEE MOVES TO CURB EXCESS VOLATILITY P7 -7,68,426 Dec retail inflation to be around 1.45%: FE Poll THE HEADLINE RETAIL inflationforDecemberisestimated to stay on the upward trajectoryafterfallingtoaseries-low in October due to adverse base effects in food prices and sequential firmness in precious metals,economists said. The CPI inflation is estimated to be 1.45% year-on-year in December, up from 0.71% in Novemberand 0.25% in October,going by the median of an FE poll of economists. This would mean the key inflation figure may have stayed belowthe Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4% for the 11th consecutive month and below the lowerend of the central bank’s target range of 2-6% for the fourth straight month. THE FINE LINE 5.22 Sebi alleges BofAunit shared private info JAYSHREE P UPADHYAY Mumbai, January 8 THE SECURITIES AND ExchangeBoardofIndia(Sebi)has accused a Bank of America (BofA) entity of violating insidertradingrulesandbreaking internal “Chinese walls” in a2024sharesale,anoticefrom the markets regulator showed. The notice followed a Sebi investigation into the conduct of BofA’s Indian securities unit in managing a March 2024 Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management (ABSL AMC) stock sale. BofA, which did not respond to requests for comment, has filed an application with Sebi to settle the charges without admitting guilt, a source with direct knowledge of the mattersaid.The application is under review by Sebi, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. BofA is also responding to theSebinotice,asecondsource with direct knowledge said. Govt contracts: Curbs on China firms may go SHARES OF CAPITAL goods firms plunged byup to 10.34% on Thursday after reports suggestedthatthefinanceministry may allow Chinese firms to bid for government contracts, reports feBureau. India in talks for $8-bn sub deal with Germany GERMANY AND INDIA are hammering out the details of a submarine manufacturing dealworth at least $8 billion— the largest-ever defence agreement for New Delhi, according to officials, reports Bloomberg. 1.45 3 2 1 0 Oct, 2025 0.25 Dec 2024 *projected The December inflation print would be the last reading undertheolder2012base,with January2026’sprint(scheduled tooutonFebruary12)toreflect the new2024 baseyear. The economists see the headline inflation staying below the 4% target “through the middle of next financial 1.7 2.6 son demand, elevated commodity prices and currency depreciation. However, some companies are likely to see one-time adjustments to employee expenses as companies complied with the CPI (% chg, y-o-y) 4 7.5 Sep ‘24 3.7 pharmaceuticalcompaniesand consumerstaplesfirms.Excluding oil marketing companies (OMCs), the aggregate profit growthwould be subdued. Some businesses benefited from festive and holiday sea- Dec 2025* year”.Sakshi Gupta,economist atHDFCBank,saidtheinflation will continue to remain below 2% in the short term and also statedthatsequentialincrease, fromNovembertoDecember,is partlybecausethebaseeffectis turning unfavourable. Continued on Page 10 CHENNAI/KOCHI Dec ‘25E Sep ‘25 Jun ‘25 Mar ‘25 Dec ‘24 Mar ‘24 Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates 6 5 10.3 6.6 Jun ‘24 8.8 Dec ‘25E 7.9 6.4 8.5 7.8 6.7 5.4 6.7 THE DECEMBER 2025 quarter earnings season should see IndiaIncdeliveramodestsetof numbers. While the performance is expected to be supported by strong results from automakers, metal producers, oil refiners,cement makers and capital goods companies,this is likely to be offset by weaker numbers from IT services majors,banks,electric utilities, Continued on Page 10 25,876.85 84,180.96 6 Continued on Page 10 KULDEEP SINGH New Delhi, January 8 KISHOR KADAM New Delhi, January 8 QUICK PICKS -0.44 THE STOCK MARKETS started 2026 on a negative note—the third time in the past four years—with both the Sensex andtheNiftyfallingover1%in the first eight days of the year. Continuing their losing streak for the fourth straight session on Thursday, the benchmark indices fell up to 1% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, trade-related concerns and persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). The Sensex fell 780.18 points or 0.92%—its biggest single-dayfallsinceAugust26, 2025—to end at 84,180.96. The Nifty slumped 263.90 points, or 1.01%, to end at 25,876.85. POOR OPENING -0.30 KISHOR KADAM Mumbai, January 8 Sep ‘25 court strikes those tariffs down, the new Bill would still allow Trump to pressure India Jun ‘25 just before a US SC ruling on whether his existing 'reciprocal' tariffs are legally valid 6.9 ■ Even if the Dec ‘24 ■ This comes MUKESH JAGOTA New Delhi, January 8 THREE DAYS AFTER US President Donald Trump warned of raising tariffs on India “very quickly”,thechancesofhimcarrying out the threat appeared morerealonThursday.Trumpis backing a Bill — Sanctioning Russia Act,2025 — mandating “up to 500% tariffs” on countriesbuyingRussianoil,without having toworryabout anyjudicial intervention in his plans. The Bill could be put to vote in the US Congress as early as next week. The latest move comes just a day before the US Supreme Court is expected to deliverrulingsonthelegalityof Trump’s sweeping tariffs—a decision that could determine whether Indian firms salvage crucial summer orders or permanentlyloseAmericanbuyers. Besides, the US will also withdraw from the India-led International Solar Alliance (ISA) among dozens of other international organisations. Trump, after his meeting with co-sponsor senator LindseyGraham,gavehisnodforthe Trump sweeping authority to impose these tariffs PREVIEW Mar ‘25 countries buying oil from Russia ■ It gives US President Donald 3.0 REAL THREAT RESULTS PAT growth (y-o-y, %) Sales growth (y-o-y, %) Sep ‘24 ● Move to punish Q3 QUIET QUARTER Jun ‘24 Higher US tariffs loom over India India Inc set to delivermodest numbers Mar ‘24 TRUMPOKAYSBILLPROPOSINGUPTO500%RATES newWage Code. The big boys will have a tough time. Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) estimates net profits of Nifty 50 companies to rise just 1.7% y-o-y, which could be the lowest in the post-Covid period. Automakersareexpectedto report fairly strong revenue growth,driven byearlydoubledigit volume increases in passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers following GST rate cuts.Average selling prices have also edged up, albeit in low single digits. Export-oriented companies shouldbenefitfromforexgains, while operating margins are likelyto expand on betteroperatingleverageandanimproved product mix,despite discounts offered bysome players. Provisional updates indicate strong loan growth of 1012% y-o-y for banks, but revenue growth is expected to be subdued, resulting in largely flat earnings. Continued on Page 6